Likely delay in onset of Monsoon over Kerala

 The rainfall due to connective activity or otherwise was not enough to fulfill the criterion for declaring onset of Monsoon over Kerala. 

The precipitation was not enough and hence we may have to wait further indicating delayed onset of Monsoon over Kerala. 

For Monsoon to set and advance further into India, the N-India and Central India should heat up sufficiently creating a pressure gradient which is already present but due to onset of a strong WD the advancement of SW Monsoon into India is under threat.

The established monsoon current being weak is affected and dominated by a CYCIR over Pakistan tilting NW to E India drifting southwards.

Below is an image the NLM(Northern Limits of Monsoon)as per IMD (India Meteorological Department) is re-shared below::-

Central India is experiencing active pre-monsoon activities like TS and rain alongwith drop in maximum temperatures.

On 01st June 2026 light to moderate TS with rains at Amravati Chindwara and Nagpur.

On 02nd June 2026 heavy thunderstorms in and around Amravati Chindwara Nagpur Bhandara Gondia.

On 03rd June 2026 light to moderate TS/rain in and around Raipur Durg Bhilai heavy thunderstorms in and around Bilaspur Korba.

On 04th June 2026 light to moderate TS/rain in and around Nagpur Bhandara some parts of chattisgarh in and around Bilaspur.

On 05th June 2026 Heavy thunderstorm with light to moderate rain around chindwara Nagpur Bhandara Gondia and areas around Raipur to Bilaspur.

Always refer to IMD for weather forecast.

Correctness of weather forecast for Amravati

 On 26th May I had issued a weather forecast as follows ::--

...............On 28th May 2026 TS activity with little rain in the nearby areas of Amravati...........

This newspaper report proves it correct 👇 

Next weather forecast will be updated shortly. 

Always refer to IMD for weather forecast.

Updated weather forecast for Centra India

 

Below is video image of SWly winds which are likely to cover major parts of Arabian sea and Bay of Bengal by the end of May 2026, bringing in more upper air moisture and trigger pre-monsoon over lage parts of India.

The NLM(Northern Limits of Monsoon)as per IMD (India Meteorological Department) as on date 26th May 2026 is re-shared below::-

On 28th May 2026 TS activity with little rain in the nearby areas of Amravati Gadchiroli Bramhapuri Rajnandgaon Bilaspur Ambikapur and Chindwara.

On 30th May 2026 TS activity with little rain in the nearby areas of Bilaspur Ambikapur

On 31st May 2026 TS activity with little rain in the nearby areas of Nagpur Amravati Yeotmal Chandrapur, also heavy pre-monsoon is very likely in and around Betul Chindwara Gondia Raipur Bilaspur and Ambikapur

Weather Forecast for Nagpur and around till 02nd June 2026

 

Partly cloudy skies over Nagpur till 2nd June 2026 will help in bringing down the maximum temperatures. 

Increase in humidity will make the comfort index degrade towards intolerance and also increase chance of occurrence of thunderstorms.

Increasing convective activity and pre-monsoon activity from 29th May 2026 till 01st June 2026 may be noted, alongwith very light rainfall in some parts of Nagpur and around.

Also 4-5°C drop in max min temps at Nagpur is possible till 02nd June 2026.

Elsewhere in vidarbha::-

On 25th may 2026 Possibility of convective activity in parts of Akola Amravati and Yeotmal.

On 26th May 2026 TS in and around Chandrapur, Washim and Yeotmal.

On 27th May 2026 TS in and around chandrapur and Washim and Akola

On 28th May 2026 TS in and around

Nagpur Akola Amravati and W MP around Betul Chindwara and CHTG around Bilaspur and Shahdol.

During this period extremely heavy pre-monsoon activities with TS/Lightening/Rains will be noted in Eastern and Southern parts of India.

Always refer to IMD for weather forecast.

Weather Forecast for Nagpur and parts of Chattisgarh region for second fortnight of May 2026

 

The maximum temperatures will continue to rise for next 4-5 days till 18th May 2026with partly cloudy skies at times.

Thunderstorms and squally weather is likely around next weekend 23-24 May 2026. 

Light to moderate rainfall at isolated places will mark the beginning of pre-monsoon.

The "nau-tapa" ::-

When the sun enters the rohini nakshatra, theoretically higher temperatures are recorded which is helpful in good monsoon rainfall.

This year in 2026 the Sun enters rohini nakshatra on May 25th which will bring scorching and intense heat which will help in better and robust monsoon.

North India will particularly be affected from 25th May 2026 to 02nd June 2026 and severe heatwaves are expected whereas in central parts of India this phenomenon will occur about a week to ten days early, as stated above.

Also monsoon is likely to hit Andamans in a day or two, on 15-16 May 2026 similar to early onset last year 2025.

Picture courtesy 👇 "Skymet"

Always refer to IMD for weather forecast.

Global hazards outlook

The above pic shared is from climate prediction centre courtesy NOAA and allgood and the probability of formation of tropical cyclone till month end (may 2026) is 20% to 40% and no major hazardous weather is predicted for India and around.

Always refer to IMD for weather forecast.

Conditions favourable for onset of Monsoon over Andamans

 Conditions are favourable for advancement of Monsoon-2026 over Andaman and Nicobar islands and further into BoB.

These inputs are from my friend and senior colleague Mr a s khan :--

Good news: Conditions are becoming highly favorable for monsoon onset over the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands during May 20-30. As per GFS, a nice upper-level anticyclone is likely to form over Central India, pushing the westerly jet stream further north and stabilizing easterlies over most parts of South India. This indicates that the mean tropospheric meridional temperature gradient is likely to reverse rapidly after May 20 and will also allow the angular momentum conserving overturning monsoon circulation to stabilize over the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, and some parts of South India by the end of the month.  

Video: 150 hPa winds in GFS on May 25 from Windy

Courtesy 👆🏻Shri AS Khan

Monsoon 2026

As analysed earlier the weather patterns behave differently every year.

A low pressure area in BoB around mid-may could trigger early arrival of monsoon over India. 

Various weather models indicate faster advancement of monsoon in 2026 over Andamans and Kerala. 

This could also be recorded as earliest ever onset of monsoon over India. 

The rainfall variability in 2026 may be very wide from drought zones to flood zones. Central India specially Nagpur and around is more likely to be normal with some variability of longer than usual break-monsoon phases, W-vid is very likely to see above normal rainfall in monsoon-2026.

Always refer to IMD.

Insights to Monsoon 2026

Amidst widely circulated news about EL NINO making it's presence felt, probably strongest ever,as reported manytimes elsewhere, the pre-monsoon activities has begun since last 2-3 days in central India and noticeable downfall in maximum temperatures alongwith changes in the patterns of upper wind flow and some cloud coverage shows that peak-summer is almost over. Though year 2026 is predicted to be EL NINO year the Monsoon in Vidarbha region is likely to be normal and parts of West vid like Akola Buldhana may record more than normal or excess rainfall in the season. There is no need to panick for farmers of Vidarbha region. Always refer to IMD for weather forecast.